Sure, for the core, no for the title:

Determine 1: Month-to-month annualized core inflation hole between the US and the euro zone (blue), common 2019-2021M02 (pink), common 2021M03-2022M08 (inexperienced). Inflation calculated as logarithmic variations on the CPI (United States) and the HICP (euro zone). Seasonally adjusted HICP utilizing X-13 census, logarithmic transformation, X-11 adjustment. The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: BLS, Eurostat through FRED, NBER and writer’s calculations.

Core inflation in the US after the ARP elevated considerably greater than within the euro zone – 2.2 proportion factors, statistically vital on the 10% degree. One might interpret this as an excessively aggressive stimulus; alternatively, one might contemplate the stimulus plans for the euro zone as insufficiently aggressive. In different phrases, it is not like we received nothing with the additional inflation.

Finally, by way of the inflation that customers face, the Eurozone has seen the identical acceleration in inflation as the US. That is proven by the corresponding graph of headline inflation differentials.

Determine 2: Annualized month-to-month inflation differential between the US and the euro zone (blue), common 2019-2022M08 (pink). Inflation calculated as logarithmic variations on the CPI (United States) and the HICP (euro zone). Seasonally adjusted HICP utilizing X-13 census, logarithmic transformation, X-11 adjustment. The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: BLS, Eurostat through FRED, NBER and writer’s calculations.

Eurozone inflation rose relative to the US with the leap in pure fuel costs from June/July 2021. If one had been to verify for a change within the variations to 2021M07, one would discover that inflation euro space accelerated by 1.4 proportion factors (statistically vital at 10% degree).

It’s attention-grabbing to see what this implies for shopper value ranges. Normalizing to 2021M03 (ARP move), we’ve got the next.

Determine 3: US-euro space log value degree (blue). Seasonally adjusted HICP utilizing X-13 census, logarithmic transformation, X-11 adjustment. The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: BLS, Eurostat through FRED, NBER and writer’s calculations.