Right here is the index of business manufacturing (Fed, Miron-Romer) in the course of the recession of 1920-21, as a reader Steven Kopits assume that is the mannequin for a present conjectured (or incipient – the conjecture retains altering) recession.

Determine 1: Federal Reserve (blue) and Miron-Romer (tan) industrial manufacturing, each in logs normalized to 1919M01=0. NBER peak to trough recession dates are shaded. Purple dotted traces in the beginning and finish of the flu epidemic. Supply: Federal Reserve through FRED, Miron RomerNBER and creator’s calculations.

Word that industrial manufacturing declined in the course of the recession of 1920-21. Can we examine to the expertise since 2021M11 (official GDP peak was in 2021Q4)? Why, sure we are able to! Right here is the evolution of the Fed collection in each instances.

Determine 2: Industrial Manufacturing Journal normalized to 1920M01=0 (tan) and 2021M11 (blue). The dates point out the months elapsed for the reason that NBER peak or hypothetical NBER peak. Supply: Federal Reserve through FRED, NBER and creator’s calculations.

To me this means that the similarity right here between 1920-21 and 2021-22 will not be there.