On the eve of the publication of the third quarter GDP: coincident index and GDPNow

Jim may have extra in a couple of hours, however for now, here is GDPNow as of 10/26, in comparison with month-to-month GDP (as of October 4) and the Philadelphia Fed Financial Index.

Determine 1: Coincident index for US (teal), month-to-month GDP from IHS-Markit (pink) and official GDP (blue bars), all normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 is GDPNow’s nowcast as of 10/26. Lilac shading signifies a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Supply: Philadelphia FedIHS-Markit (10/4 model), BEA and Atlanta Fed (10/26 model) and creator’s calculations.

Notice that the coincident index for the US, reflecting the month-to-month labor market and different indicators, trended steadily upward all through a putative H1 2022 recession.

Furthermore, no matter slowdown there was regionally, it doesn’t seem to have reached recessive ranges, not less than in accordance with the diffusion index related to the coincident index.

Determine 2: Index of Coincidence for the US (blue, left scale), Diffusion Index for one-month modifications within the Index of Coincidence (tan, proper scale). The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Lilac shading signifies a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Supply: Philadelphia FedNBER and creator’s calculations.

Right here is the map of the US, utilizing Three month-to-month progress charges in coincident indices, displaying how widespread (or not) declines in financial exercise are.

Supply: Philadelphia Fedmodel of 26/10/2022.