Russian defensive traces would have been damaged, Snihurivka might be freed

Ukrainian soldiers wave a national flag as they ride an armored personnel carrier on a road near Lyman in the Donetsk region on October 4, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 2, 2022 that Lyman, a key city located in one of the four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia, had been "erased" troops from Moscow.  (Photo by Anatolii Stepanov/AFP) (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

One other hour, one other map of the northern zone of Russian occupation within the Kherson area. All through Tuesday and into the night, Ukraine continued to push south, bringing the realm liberated since Sunday on this a part of this oblast alone to an unbelievable 1,600 sq. kilometres.

Ukraine has now reclaimed a few third of the realm previously occupied by Russia on the western facet of the Dnipro River.

Not all cities and cities marked have been confirmed, however most of them have been. That in itself reveals one other enormous change in Kherson this week: Opsec. Beforehand, Ukraine had demanded, and obtained, digital silence from the forces stationed in Kherson. Villages had been forwards and backwards, Ukrainian troops made this daring double again wherein they crossed a Russian-built pontoon bridge to liberate a Russian-occupied city. However so far as the movies and pictures of the Ukrainian forces had been involved, there was nothing to see. Whoever gave that discuss on how free iPhones sink infantry, they did a very good job.

Solely now there are movies and extra movies. Many, if not most, of the cities and villages liberated previously two days are accompanied by video of Ukrainian forces strolling round, residents tearfully saluting them (typically with an apple or watermelon) and the elevating of a Ukrainian flag. Ukraine is again on this subject, and it does not matter who is aware of.

By Tuesday night in Ukraine, the fast advance of Ukrainian forces had introduced them again to the road presupposed to signify Russia’s fallback place: a line from Bruskynske to Borozenske to Mylove. Every of those positions would have been bolstered by Russian forces which have withdrawn from the entrance traces, and every would have defensive positions that Russia hopes to make use of to carry the roads that result in Berislav (backside of the map).

However, just some minutes in the past, reviews from Telegram sources point out that this line is already damaged. And apparently, broke badly.


Based on pro-Russian supply Rybar, “The Ukrainian formations will proceed to go the defensive orders of the Russian Armed Forces. The closest goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Berislav and New Kakhovka. A brand new part of the battle for Kherson begins.”

It’s not recognized whether or not Russia managed to cross the Dnipro at Nova Kakhovka. Extra probably, as Kos advised earlier, they’ve retreated throughout the Inhulets River to the west facet of the map and piled up across the metropolis of Kherson, the place they will neither be equipped nor adequately recorded. Others are absolutely huddled in Berislav, hoping {that a} barge, or a pontoon bridge, or a helicopter, or a flying horse will come and take them away earlier than the Ukrainian forces attain the city. As a result of Berislave is simply about 4 small blocks deep in its complete size, with the again of the city flat in opposition to the river.

Berislav just isn’t a great place to make a final stand.

There’s a small quarry close to the northwest facet of city, offering a little bit of a ditch and a hill made up of spoil. That is about it for topography. There isn’t any massive industrial zone within the metropolis, and it is exhausting to see the place hundreds of Russians may place themselves in that space with out getting overwhelmed up.

In fact, the Russian weapons east of the Dnipro will most likely arrange on the opposite facet of the river and attempt to cowl the trapped forces, however such a slender city just isn’t probably the most comfy place to be when the shells fuse above their heads. And Ukraine will completely declare it HIMARS O’Clock if there’s a giant group of Russian forces gathered there.

Then again, it’s truly the location of the Turkish fortress city of Kazikermen, from which a legendary iron chain was raised throughout the Dnipro, and it additionally homes the ruins of a 14th century citadel. . So somebody previously apparently thought it was a good place to cover. In fact, these individuals previously had by no means heard of artillery.

The place is the actual entrance line proper now? I have no idea. I can solely inform you this: the map on the prime of this web page, like all the opposite maps I’ve created at present, is already very outdated. In three days, Ukraine liberated a 3rd of the territory on the western facet of the Dnipro. By the point we get affirmation of the brand new posts, that would simply be greater than half.

For 3 days, Ukraine has been pushing on a broad entrance. For 3 days, Russia has been retreating. Now they each look set to collide throughout the river from Nova Kakhovka. What occurs right here goes to be important.

Now Ukraine simply has to get there. In the meantime, simply as I used to be ending this…

Snihurivka guards a freeway that leads on to the town of Kherson, and there are few locations alongside this freeway appropriate for protection to the outskirts of the town. May Ukraine actually go for Kherson and Nova Kakhovka at a time?

Tuesday, October 4, 2022 11:49:01 PM +00:00 · cos

New goodies for Ukraine.

Options of this bundle embody:

  • 4 Excessive Mobility Artillery Rocket Techniques (HIMARS) and related munitions;
  • 16 howitzers of 155 mm;
  • 75,000 155mm artillery shells;
  • 500 precision-guided 155 mm artillery shells;
  • 1,000 rounds of 155mm Distant Anti-Armor Mine Techniques (RAAM);
  • 16 howitzers of 105 mm;
  • 30,000 120mm mortar shells;
  • 200 MaxxPro mine-resistant ambush protected autos;
  • 200,000 small arms ammunition;
  • impediment laying gear;
  • Claymore anti-personnel ammunition.

Precision-guided artillery shells are notably essential for hitting entrenched armor on this final line of protection round Kherson and Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast. The distant anti-tank mine shells are a curious addition, I’m wondering why Ukraine requested for them given how shortly they punch by way of Russian traces.

HIMARS are solely helpful if the USA has the rockets for them. Or possibly it alleviates upkeep points, since all army gear is vulnerable to frequent breakdowns. The 155 M777s are most likely a re-enactment, as we noticed a handful destroyed by Russia.

105mm howitzers are smaller and could be towed by humvees and different jeep-like autos. They’ve a shorter vary than Howitzers, however nice assist for attacking troops because of their mobility and since longer vary objects can’t be fired close to pleasant forces.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022 12:00:12 +00:00


We’ll ultimately know extra particulars concerning the collapse of the Russian protection in Kherson, however chances are high it has quite a bit to do with Russia’s incapability to correctly construct up its forces on this axis. I’ve seen credible estimates that solely a few quarter of Russia’s provide wants are met by barges and what little truck visitors can safely cross the 2 broken bridges within the Kherson Pocket. Chilly and hungry troops affected by a scarcity of ammunition and gas don’t lend themselves to efficient protection. By collapsing the traces, Russia alleviates its logistical challenges and might focus its firepower in a smaller space.

In fact, concentrating their forces round two tight traces additionally implies that Ukraine can even focus its artillery in a small house, and the HIMARS rockets with the tungsten shell balls can do their macabre job much more successfully. This may not finish effectively for Russia, they usually’d higher simply ferry their forces throughout the river, gifting Ukraine with all that delicate, candy armor. Effectively, at the least the good things, not these outdated T-62Ms from the Nineteen Sixties (though they could be helpful to Territorial Protection Forces occupying the Belarusian border).