The counter-offensive continues. All routes to Lyman now underneath Ukrainian management

Ukrainian soldiers walk on a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river in Izyum, Kharkiv region on September 25, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA/AFP) (Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images)

Ukrainian troopers on a bridge over the Silverskyi Donets River. September 25, 2022.

Tuesday was a kind of days when issues modified so rapidly {that a} map of the battlefield in sure areas within the night barely seemed like one of many similar areas within the morning. In two completely different areas of northeastern Ukraine, cities and villages have been liberated, the world underneath Russian occupation has been lowered, and the remaining Russian forces within the area have been uncovered to a considerably increased threat.

Whereas there are different issues occurring which are definitely vital, it is laborious to not first have a look at the areas the place Ukraine has made nice strides up to now 24 hours and the place the present charts nearly definitely have a number of steps behind the state of affairs on the bottom.

No open provide routes to Lyman and Drobysheve.

As at all times, you may in all probability must open the map in one other tab to get a sufficiently big picture if you wish to comply with. On this morning’s map, I highlighted the roads that had introduced provides and reinforcements to the Lyman and Drobysheve space. Be aware the “had been”.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces north of Lyman continued to surge east, turning south to liberate Zelena Dolyna and Kolodyazi. Reviews already counsel that this isn’t the true extent of Ukrainian forces. Russian sources are already speaking about an assault on Ukraine of Kolodyazi within the south and east, and Ukrainian sources point out that Ukraine settled in Ivanivka.

This locations the Ukrainian forces straight on the freeway supplying Lyman from the north. Nonetheless, it might not even have been crucial to complete chopping the world. It’s because the shock push throughout the Siverskyii Donets River to Dibrova additionally proved to be greater than only a reconnaissance power. Russian sources declare that Russia has now withdrawn from the city of Torske, which might give Ukraine management of the intersection which gives entry from the east or north.

Late Tuesday, Ukraine captured Serednje and Shandryholove. This leaves a small pocket – from Drobysheve to Lyman to Yampil – occupied by Russian forces. And they’re completely reduce off.

Russia is left with two choices: it might probably attempt to retreat, an motion that will possible require a aid power from Svatove to maintain the street open, or it might probably go in place. The truth is, there’s a third possibility. They might proceed to battle. From the best way Russia continues to cowl the hills east of Bakhmut with corpses, that is possible the order given to all troopers presently within the Lyman space. Hopefully none of them are loopy sufficient to comply with these orders.

It’s unclear what number of Russian forces stay on this closed pocket, or how lengthy they’ll maintain out in the event that they select to proceed combating. As Vladimir Putin prepares to ship his large “everybody in Ukraine desires to be Russia” speech on Friday, it could definitely be good if Lyman’s seize might happen inside the subsequent two days. What occurs on this space might occur rapidly or final for some time. Ukraine is unlikely to waste many individuals attempting to power Russia out of Lyman, however releasing forces from that space would imply a big leap into new areas. Keep tuned.

Main battles reported within the north look like over

Final week there was reportedly heavy combating within the Petropavlivka and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi area throughout the Kupyansk river, and in Tavilzhanka throughout from Dvorichna. These battles look like over now, every culminating in a Ukrainian victory. Ukrainian sources proceed to say that operational safety is excessive within the area and, not like the every day actions round Lyman, there was little visibility of what’s occurring within the north. It is vitally possible that this map displays a conservative view of the liberated space of ​​Ukraine on the east aspect of the Oskil River.

What is thought is that Ukraine has now moved to Kivsharivka to the south and is outwardly attempting to bridge the hole between these two beachheads. With the liberation of Kivsharivka, the 2 largest cities nonetheless occupied by Russia in Kharkiv Oblast are Lyman and Borova. There look like few defensive or geographic borders to forestall Ukraine from pushing Russia out of the oblast utterly. The truth is, there are not any actual defensible strains for Russia till properly past Lugansk Oblast.

The journey remains to be about 30 km if the forces throughout the river in Kupyansk need to descend the japanese financial institution and strike Borova from the north, simply as different forces have already entered the town from the south. However there are just a few small places on the best way, so it might occur rapidly, if it matches Ukraine’s plan.

And that might be the largest clear sign of all this week – Ukraine is planning. It performs coordinated actions between a number of items that cooperate each to anticipate and react to Russian actions. When Ukraine got down to encircle the power at Lyman, it didn’t advance. The place there was resistance it moved on, shifting north, south and east till a few of these resistance factors have been themselves surrounded and the Russian forces fled. They do not simply throw individuals in Lyman on daily basis and plot the place the our bodies fall, like Russia does in Bakhmut (That is not correct. Russia would not trouble to make a chart.)

Nonetheless, because the Russians discover it tough to battle Ukraine, they’ve their very own plan: to power the Ukrainians to take action. Because the BBC studies, Russia warns Ukrainian males in occupied areas that they might be conscripted to battle towards Ukraine.

Russian troopers are already going home to accommodate in some villages and writing down the names of male residents, residents say. They declare that the troopers instructed them to be prepared for a name after the referendum.

Oh yeah. That ought to repair every little thing.

Wednesday Sep 28, 2022 4:06:36 PM +00:00

Marc Sumner

Russian sources have good purpose to fret. Indications are that Russian casualties on the east aspect of the Oskil River have been “horrendous”, leaving the trail to Svatove just about open alongside the P07 freeway from Kupyansk. There are just a few cities and little topography alongside this route, and it is a strong freeway. Issues might transfer in a short time if Ukraine strikes on this route.