Sunday was fairly a day, with main Ukrainian advances on two fronts ignoring Russia’s “annexation” of 4 Ukrainian oblasts. Certainly, since yesterday (thus with out counting in the present day’s massive features in Kherson), Ukraine had already taken again 9% of the territory occupied by Russia on the finish of August. Tack on some extent or two after in the present day.

In each circumstances, the collapsing Russian strains scramble to ascertain new defensive strains additional to the rear. This will simply be the beginning of main features in each axes.

KHERSON

Assuming all of the studies are true, Dudachny means Ukraine have penetrated 20 kilometers into the Russian backfield in a single day. The Russian Telegram is in full panic mode proper now, so I am unable to get a way of the particular high quality of the town’s defenses. Some declare that Dudachny was launched by Ukraine, which actually sounds too good to be true. What we do know is that taking the town would give Ukraine some nice choices.

Ukrainian forces may rush on the freeway alongside the Dnipro river to Beryslav to Nova Kakhovka. However that will current one hell of an uncovered flank, the mom of all salients, which Russian forces may then attempt to reduce via. Until Ukraine had the reserves to increase such a salient and shield its flanks, it will be too nice a danger.

Higher nonetheless, Ukraine would ideally try to encircle the Russian positions to the north by slicing west, in the direction of that persistent bridgehead close to Davidyi Brid. These Russian positions ought to both withdraw, retreat or give up, similar to at Lyman. The chaotic state of affairs would current the Ukrainians with an entire new batch of Russian navy tools on Lend-Lease, in addition to important put on and tear on their fight forces. And that will keep away from, for now, the huge defensive strains that Russia has put in place nearer to Kherson and Nova Karkhovka.

Now some Russian Telegram accounts declare that Ukrainian forces are attempting to interrupt into Beryslavlocation of certainly one of focus filter camps. (I worry to see what investigators will discover as soon as he’s launched.) I might be cautious with these claims, actually within the too good to be true class. What’s extra probably is that Ukrainian forces are approaching Beryslav Areawhich begins simply south of Dudachny and requires crossing an extended bridge which can or might not stay standing.

Capturing Dudachny would place certainly one of Russia’s most essential regional airfields inside attain of HIMARS:

Thrilling issues. As I write this I see the primary studies from Russian Telegram that Dudachny has been launched. I will not imagine it till I’ve extra proof. Possibly we’ll all get up to fantastic information.

KHARKIV

Ukrainian forces are approaching the Kreminna, which is of utmost significance to Russia. As struggle legal Igor Girkin wrote earlier in the present day:

In keeping with the knowledge obtained, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have taken full management of the village of Torskoye, northeast of Liman. There may be nothing essential on this, however now the query arises of holding Kremennaya – one of many key factors offering the northern flank of the Lisichansk protection. By no means must you surrender a flint.

With Kreminna, Ukraine has the choice of heading both north to Svatove, the linchpin of 1000’s of Russian-held sq. kilometers in northeast Ukraine, or southeast to encircle Severdonetsk and Lysychansk. Russia lacks the forces to defend each, which places them at a severe drawback. Filling the gaps with untrained mobilized conscripts will not make issues a lot better. And if Kreminna is inescapable, Russia is screwed, as a result of it’s an extremely tough metropolis to defend, in a valley surrounded by hills. Have a look at the photograph on this tweet:

HIMARS contributed to weakening your entire entrance. Try this thread:

BAKHMOUT

What is going on right here?

Wagnerian forces preserve banging their heads in opposition to this rock, presumably utilizing their jail fodder, for no obvious motive. Even when they captured Bakhmut, which they will not, what may that accomplish? That is to not say that these Wagnerian forces would fare a lot better elsewhere on the entrance line, however no less than they’d serve a legitimate navy function.

———

As is commonly stated, one of many challenges america and NATO have confronted in offering struggle help to Ukraine is that Western powers have constructed their struggle doctrine round air energy, and never armor or artillery. Subsequently, shares of what may be shipped to Ukraine are restricted. This graph illustrates how heavy the US and NATO are in air:

This represents about 5,800 fighter jets, in comparison with about 1,000 for Russia. Given the problem in supplying Ukraine with fighter planes (logistics and coaching years), this has been a elementary drawback in giving Ukraine the supplies it must win this struggle – a crushing earth duel.